I lead an interdisciplinary research program which lies at the intersection of climate change science, marine science, and policy. The objective of this program is to address real-world problems related to climate change impacts and solutions. The specific research areas evolve over time in response to advances in knowledge and real-world events.
Since the problems the world faces fall in the gaps between traditional academic disciplines, my research group and I draw on methods from across the natural sciences and the social sciences. The methods frequently include, but are not limited to, numerical modelling, geospatial analysis, underwater surveys, instrument deployment, qualitative and quantitative surveys, and expert interviews.
There are four major areas of ongoing and planned research:
1. Marine heatwaves and other extreme climate events
As the planet warms, extreme events in the ocean and on land are threatening people and the environment across the globe. For example, marine heatwaves cause mass mortality of tropical corals and temperate kelp and can lead to long-term ecological decline. Roughly half of our research is focused on the physical drivers and impacts of extreme heat events, the rate at which ecosystems and society can adapt, and how we define “normal” on a changing planet:
- Drivers and trends in marine climate extremes: Building on past work on ocean warming and El Niño, our recent research has quantified changes in the frequency and structure of warm-season marine heatwaves (e.g., Li and Donner 2022) and the implications for coastal ecosystems. Ongoing research is focusing on extreme heat and sea-level in the tropical Pacific and on the atmospheric drivers of ocean extremes.
- Natural laboratories in the ocean: The Republic of Kiribati, subject to frequent El Niño-driven marine heatwaves, is a natural laboratory for evaluating how coral reefs cope with climate warming (Donner and Carilli 2019; Cannon et al. 2021). Since 2005, I have worked with the Kiribati government to track how their reefs respond to climate and local disturbances using SCUBA-based surveys and oceanographic data collection. My group has recently expanded this concept of natural laboratories to the tropical kelp forests of the Galápagos Islands, which may be a relic of a cooler past, or a refuge on a warming planet.
- Predicting the future: For almost two decades, I have developed models to estimate the frequency and severity of coral bleaching as the climate changes (Donner et al. 2005; Logan et al. 2021; González-Espinosa and Donner, 2023) and developed databases for tracking coral bleaching (Urcelay and Donner, 2023; access the data here). Ongoing and pending research looks at the effects of coral reef degradation on future coastal flooding, potential future coral reef refugia, and the implications of repeated marine heatwaves on kelp forests.
2. Seeing the path to low-carbon future
Canada and other governments around the world have pledged to stop adding greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere by mid-century. Achieving such a transformation changes in how energy is produced and used will require imagination and courage. Inspired by this monumental challenge and my role on Canada’s Net-Zero Advisory Body, I am developing new action-oriented behavioural research focused on helping the public and policymakers better see evidence of the transformation underway and embrace the co-benefits of a low-carbon future.
3. Climate change risk and adaptation in the Small Island Developing States
Building on experience working in Kiribati, Fiji and other Pacific island countries, my students and I continue examine to assess climate risks and identify obstacles to adaptation to sea-level rise and other climate hazards. We have looked at the challenges of using science to inform decision-making (Findlater et al. 2021), international financing for adaptation (Donner et al. 2016), and the factors that influence adaptation decisions on the ground (Donner and Webber 2014). Planned research will examine the emergence of blue carbon projects and the continued challenges in providing sufficient international finance for climate change adaptation and climate change damages.
4. Effective public engagement on climate change
The late Stephen Schneider famously suggested that scientists engaging with the public must find a balance between the strict norms of their field and effective means of communication. For the past decade, I have worked to help scientists find their place on the “science-advocacy continuum” (Schmidt and Donner 2017; Donner 2014) when interacting with the public and policymakers. For example, ongoing research, in conjunction with research area #1, is looking at the effect of extreme climate events on people’s willingness to engage in climate action, and the implications for education and outreach.
